SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: Democrats close in as Republicans scramble to hold Congress

In the closing days of the 2026 midterm cycle, all available evidence suggests that the trends are moving in Democrats favor. Polls, forecasts, and prediction markets are now ringing alarm bells for Republicans, as virtually all key races move in Democrats direction.

Indeed, on Saturday, Cook Political Report shifted "a dozen more House races" toward Democrats, now projecting that Democrats will flip 12-25 House seats, potentially giving them their largest majority since 2009.

As a result, political forecasting sites VoteHub and Decision Desk have updated their odds of Democrats taking the House to their highest levels of the cycle: 89% and 83%, respectively, as of Sunday afternoon.

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Prediction markets have followed suit: Kalshi gives Democrats a 93% chance to take the House and a 71% chance to win the Senate as well.

To that end, the trends in the Senate point in the same direction, and while Republicans have slightly better odds of keeping the upper chamber, its clear that the momentum is with Democrats.

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Final polls ahead of the election show all or most of the seven key races shifting to the left, including in Kansas, where Democrat Adam Hamilton leads in the four most recent polls, including one from The Washington Post in which he led Republican incumbent Roger Marshall by 9%.

True, that is an outlier — and its accuracy is being reviewed by The Washington Post — but the fact that every other poll is within six points in a state that has not had a Democratic senator in over 90 years indicates that the underlying trend is moving in Democrats favor.

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Other Republican-held seats in South Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Texas and Ohio are also increasingly within reach for Democrats.

Of those races, South Carolina and Iowa are the only two where the Republican candidate has a polling lead, but its under three points in South Carolina and under one point in Iowa. Thus, both races are statistically tied and within reach for Democrats.

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In the other states — Maine, Texas, Ohio and Michigan — the polls have consistently shown Democratic candidates leading.

And while those leads are small, they have not contracted, and Michigan in particular has seen a noticeable widening, with Abdul El-Sayed now leading Republican Mike Rogers by roughly four points.

However, it will be in