RT-s guide to the US midterm elections: what-s at stake and why presidents lose

RT-s guide to the US midterm elections: what-s at stake and why presidents lose

Iran, Israel, and the economy are all on the ballot in a vote that’s shaping up to be a referendum on Trump’s second term
With US President Donald Trump’s Republicans tied to an unpopular war and record high gas prices, the party is fighting to maintain control over Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections. RT explains the election process, examines the polls, and asks whether Democrats can pull off a ‘blue wave’ – and if anything will change.
How do the midterm elections work?Every four years, halfway through a presidential term, Americans vote on which party gets to control the House of Representatives and Senate. Representatives serve a two-year term, so all 435 seats in the lower house are up for grabs; Senators serve for six years, and this year 35 seats in the upper house are being contested. Voters in 36 out of 50 states will also choose their governors on Tuesday.
More than 51 million Americans have already cast their ballots, surpassing the previous early voting record set in 2022.
The Republican Party currently holds a 218-214 seat majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Maintaining this razor-thin majority, particularly in the House, is of vital importance to Trump. Should they win one or both houses of Congress, the Democrats have vowed to launch multiple investigations into the president’s personal finances, handling of the Epstein files, and prosecution of the war on Iran, all with a view to impeaching Trump.
With Congress in their hands, Democrats could stymie Trump’s legislative agenda, rendering him a lame duck president for his remaining two years in the White House.
Does every US president lose the midterms?Although voters are technically choosing which candidates to represent their districts and states in Washington, the US two-party system effectively makes every midterm election a referendum on the president’s first two years in office. Voters punish Republican presidents by voting Democrat, and vice-versa, and it’s become a widely-accepted truism that every president loses some seats in the midterms.
In 20 out of 23 midterm elections since 1934, the president’s party has lost seats in the House. With fewer seats changing hands, the Senate is less volatile: since 1934, the president’s party has lost seats in 15 out of 23 midterms.
The president always loses for whatever reason, the midterms, whoever it is, Republican, Democrat, great president, lousy president, Trump told reporters in late October. However, accepting defeat as a foregone conclusion ignores the real issues shaping this year’s elections.
What are the key midterm election issues in 2026?It’s the economy.
Democrats and Republicans alike see the economy as the number one issue in the elections, according to a Pew Research survey taken in October. On economic matters, Trump is on shaky ground. The US-Israeli war on Iran and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed gasoline prices to a record high of $4.29 per gallon on the eve of the vote. According to an AP poll published on Monday, 65% of US adults blame higher costs on Trump’s policies, with six in ten Republicans disapproving of his handling of the cost of living.
Data from a Pew Research survey, published October 8, 2026 ©  Pew Research Majorities of Democrats and Republicans alike told Pew that they view the future of democracy as a key issue in their vote, although with both parties routinely accusing each other of threatening democracy itself, this is now par for the course in American elections.
What else?
Behind these top two issues, Democrat voters rate healthcare, education, and foreign policy as their next three election-deciding issues. Republicans highlighted immigration, violent crime, and government overreach. On the latter three, Trump and the GOP can show some clear victories: illegal border crossings have fallen to essentially zero; the US fore